The worst danger of the outbreak is not the death, but the destruction of the existing international system

The situation in Japan has faded from public view since the highly publicized “diamond princess” incident in March.

On April 7th, however, a restless Mr. Abe declared that “Japan’s economy is facing its biggest crisis since the war”, including a state of emergency in seven prefectures in Osaka, Tokyo, and spent 10.8 billion yen to ease the crisis.

“The biggest crisis since the second world war” was not the first to be raised by Mr. Abe.

Italy declared war on itself after more than 10,000 cases were confirmed, and its prime minister, Alvaro Conte, declared it the biggest crisis since the second world war.

COVID 19 Britain’s mildly ill prince Charles also sees the biggest crisis of the post-war era;

British prime minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to ICU;

Nearly 140,000 people have been diagnosed in New York alone, despite a $2 trillion emergency response.

Is the world vulnerable to viruses?

The Ebola virus in Africa also caused panic around the world. Although the epidemic is not as large as COVID-19, it is more virulent. So far, Ebola has not been eradicated and is still present in a few countries. It’s not the first time I’ve been sick. Even if a vaccine is developed, the possibility of prolonged low intensity in a few areas remains in the state of latent and transmission of a novel coronavirus.

Smallpox and bubonic plague are among the most celebrated epidemics that humanity has eliminated. But smallpox and plague viruses, they still exist. The Bill Gates foundation has long battled malaria and polio in Africa.

The black death, or bubonic plague, wiped out a third of Europe’s population in the 14th century. After the great voyages of Europe, viruses such as malaria and influenza, brought from Europe, wiped out almost the entire new world including the indigenous populations of North and South America, a conservative estimate of 30 million; The 1918 Spanish flu killed between 40 million and 100 million people.

The traditional greatest post-war crisis: nuclear and economic

The biggest crises since the second world war have always been nuclear and economic, but both have always been manageable. Because the whole control of the international order is still in the system.

The NATO system and Warsaw pact system formed after the second world war, and the two nuclear buttons of the United States and the Soviet union are just like the gravitational wave buttons controlled by Luo Ji in the three-body problem, which is the deterrent force to maintain the balance between the two sides. Because of systematic communication, the two sides fought numerous proxy wars and never really fought with swords.

The same is true of the economic crisis. In the 70 years since the long victory against fascism, the world has experienced many small-scale economic crises, including the crisis in South America, the debt crisis in Greece, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, and the earthquake crisis in Japan, without any signs of systemic collapse.

Novel coronavirus exacerbates globalization

Since the end of the second world war, the trend of the world has been global. From ideological alignment to the fall of the Berlin Wall to the rise of global economic integration, the human form as a social animal has been magnified.

The same goes for people. Over the past decade, the rate of global population movement has accelerated, and the flow from undeveloped to developed countries has increased. China, India and Southeast Asia flow to the United States, while the Middle East and Africa flow to Europe.

By stirring up trouble at this time, the new champions are only exacerbating the already fragile state of globalization. Even if the new champions do not come, a global recession and trade conflict is bound to occur on a global scale.

2019 is itself a prediction: at the national level, confrontation and confrontation between nation-states are taking place in full force; The United Nations, the WTO, the IMF, and other international coordination agencies have been weakened, and regional coordination has taken place on a large scale. At home, global protests against the environment and protests in the Middle East and South America are brewing a global storm.

Recession is inevitable. But the first thing that comes to mind when countries rebuild after an outbreak is not restarting their trading systems, but rather settling scores.

People need to maintain optimistic expectations for the future, which is the best hope to get out of misery. At the same time, also want to carry on the psychological construction, prepare for the worst.

Share this post